H1 2026 PART 2: BUBBLES, BALLS, & BIG AGGREGATION
Download MP3Two-thirds of the world watches more video on their phone than on TV, TikTok is beating Netflix in most markets under 55, and traditional media is ignoring 60% of its own audience's attention. It’s The Media Odyssey’s season two finale!
Evan and Marion zoom out on the biggest trends of the year so far they haven’t covered yet: the AI investment bubble, the creator economy's growing pains, the state of kids' content, and the measurement crisis at the heart of the streaming and social media landscape. It's one of their most data-rich, openly argumentative episodes of the season.
Part 2 goes deep on Evan's brand-new ESHAP Cross-Screen Attention Index, the first attempt to measure total video attention across screens in eight global markets, and what it reveals about where audiences are actually spending their time in 2025.
Key Takeaways:
1. The ESHAP Cross-Screen Attention Index
Launched at index.eshap.tv, this is the first publicly available tool to measure total video attention across screens in eight global markets (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico), cross-collateralizing TV measurement data (Nielsen, Barb, AGF, Kantar), handset data (Sensor Tower, Comscore), and consumer diaries (GWI) to de-duplicate simultaneous screen usage.
Launched at index.eshap.tv, this is the first publicly available tool to measure total video attention across screens in eight global markets (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico), cross-collateralizing TV measurement data (Nielsen, Barb, AGF, Kantar), handset data (Sensor Tower, Comscore), and consumer diaries (GWI) to de-duplicate simultaneous screen usage.
Key finding: 81% of the global population is under 55 and for that group, the phone, not the TV, is the center of gravity for video consumption.
2. TikTok Is Bigger Than You Think
In almost every market studied, TikTok ranks #2 in total attention among consumers under 55. This means TikTok beats Netflix, Disney, Paramount, NBCU, and Warner Bros. Discovery. In several markets, it beats YouTube among viewers under 34. When TikTok gains share in a market, it takes it from streamers. When YouTube gains share, it takes it from traditional media. These two dynamics are running simultaneously and are why every major streaming platform is now rushing to launch a vertical feed.
In almost every market studied, TikTok ranks #2 in total attention among consumers under 55. This means TikTok beats Netflix, Disney, Paramount, NBCU, and Warner Bros. Discovery. In several markets, it beats YouTube among viewers under 34. When TikTok gains share in a market, it takes it from streamers. When YouTube gains share, it takes it from traditional media. These two dynamics are running simultaneously and are why every major streaming platform is now rushing to launch a vertical feed.
3. The Phone, the TV, and the Whole Consumer
Evan and Marion's core debate: Evan argues traditional media is failing because it's treating TV and phone as separate businesses rather than a single consumer continuum. The evidence: Obsession and Backrooms were both discovered on social media and are both crushing it at the box office. Saturday Night Live's audience is now on YouTube the next day. France Télévisions opened its entire annual conference by declaring the murder of traditional television.
Evan and Marion's core debate: Evan argues traditional media is failing because it's treating TV and phone as separate businesses rather than a single consumer continuum. The evidence: Obsession and Backrooms were both discovered on social media and are both crushing it at the box office. Saturday Night Live's audience is now on YouTube the next day. France Télévisions opened its entire annual conference by declaring the murder of traditional television.
But Marion pushes back, pointing to Channel 4, France Télévisions, and TF1 as examples of European broadcasters already making the move. She argues the platforms, not the broadcasters, are the ones failing to support the transition commercially.
Interested in sponsorship? https://forms.gle/2LCWfX2HBNT8mtpx8
Connect with us on Linkedin:
Evan Shapiro - https://www.linkedin.com/in/eshap-media-cartographer/
Marion Ranchet - https://www.linkedin.com/in/marionranchet/
The Media Odyssey Podcast - https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-media-odyssey-podcast
- (00:00) - Season Finale Setup
- (00:44) - Why Measurement Breaks
- (01:34) - Launching The Index
- (02:06) - Deduplicating Multiscreen Time
- (04:32) - Under 55 Shifts Everything
- (06:17) - Interactive Share Scenarios
- (07:18) - Living Room Vs Real Life
- (10:20) - Quality Of Attention Debate
- (12:05) - Social Drives Culture
- (13:26) - Continuum Not A Binary
- (17:36) - Legacy Media On Platforms
- (20:13) - Monetizing Social Video
- (23:36) - Platform Frustrations
- (25:58) - Check The Methodology
- (26:22) - Built With LLMs
- (27:02) - Season Wrap And Goodbye
Creators and Guests
Host
Evan Shapiro
Based in the US, Evan Shapiro is the Media Industry’s official Cartographer, known for his well-researched and provocative analysis of the entertainment ecosystem in his must read treatises on Media’s latest trends and trajectories.
Host
Marion Ranchet
Marion Ranchet, French expat based in Amsterdam, has become the industry’s go-to expert in all things streaming, building a following for turning even the most complex problems into easily digestible and actionable insights.
